Yields Jump, Stocks Rip: A Short Week with Long-Term Signals

Daniel Ledenev
Jul 5
7 min read

Updated: Jul 26

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (June 30 to July 4, 2025)

With fireworks in the sky and on the charts, this week reminded us that even a shortened trading week can bring full throttle action. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq charged to fresh record highs, fueled by AI momentum, strong tech earnings, and cooling inflation vibes. But just as bulls got comfortable, a hot jobs report trimmed near-term rate cut hopes, jolting bond markets and pushing yields higher. Add in Trump’s tariff threats, gold holding steady, and a rising dollar, and you’ve got a week balancing optimism with risk recalibration. Summer may be here, but markets aren’t on vacation. Let’s get into the action!

To our U.S. readers; Happy 4th of July!

📈 S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Hit New Highs as Trade Optimism Fuels Rally!

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended their winning streaks and closed at record highs this week, driven by renewed optimism around U.S. & China trade negotiations and continued strength in tech and AI sectors. Investor confidence was further reinforced by dovish central bank expectations and signs of economic resilience. The S&P 500 closed at 5,612.44, while the Nasdaq 100 finished at 20,449.26, both notching fresh records. The Nasdaq 100, in particular, has now climbed over 22% year-to-date, powered by mega cap tech stocks and enthusiasm around AI-driven growth.

This week’s gains were underpinned by positive signals from U.S. and Chinese officials, hinting at progress in reopening trade dialogue. While no concrete deal has been reached, the tone has shifted from confrontation to cautious cooperation, reducing a major overhang for global markets. Tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple led the charge once again. Investors poured into high-growth names as Treasury yields stayed relatively contained and inflation readings remained benign. Meanwhile, broader market participation also improved, with cyclicals and small caps catching a modest bid, indicating healthy breadth beneath the surface. Market watchers are also pricing in a soft landing scenario, as inflation cools and economic data (like jobs and consumer confidence) continues to show strength without overheating. Despite a stronger than expected payroll report that trimmed immediate Fed rate cut odds, equities held firm, suggesting the bull narrative is intact for now.

💼 Currys Delivers Strong FY Results, Restores Dividend After 37% Profit Jump

UK electronics retailer Currys posted a robust full year performance for FY2024/25, with adjusted pre-tax profits rising 37% to £118 million, marking a sharp rebound after a difficult prior year. The turnaround was driven by disciplined cost controls, operational efficiencies, and improved margins, particularly in its Nordic and UK/IRE segments.

Revenue dipped slightly, down 2% year-over-year to £9.38 billion, reflecting softer consumer demand and a more cautious retail environment. However, gross margin expanded by 170 basis points to 21.3%, offsetting volume pressure and boosting bottom-line performance.

One of the biggest headlines: Currys reinstated its dividend, paying 1 pence per share, signaling renewed confidence in its balance sheet and future cash flow. CEO Alex Baldock emphasized the company’s commitment to “doing fewer things, better,” as it exited non core markets and refocused on profitability and customer experience. Despite macro headwinds, the company reaffirmed its FY2025/26 guidance and remains focused on boosting cash flow, cutting debt, and building resilience. Investors welcomed the results, sending shares higher post-announcement.

📊 June Jobs Report: Labor Market Slows, But Not Enough for Immediate Fed Cut

The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, a noticeable slowdown from May’s revised 172,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the highest level since late 202, fueling speculation that the labor market is gradually cooling.

The report showed broad based but moderating growth, with gains across healthcare, government, and construction, while sectors like manufacturing and retail remained soft. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, keeping the year-over-year wage growth steady at 3.9%, a figure that still sits above the Fed’s comfort zone for inflation control. Despite signs of deceleration, Federal Reserve officials may hold off on cutting rates in July, as the labor market remains relatively strong and inflation progress is slow. Markets initially trimmed odds of a July cut (now near 6%) but still price in a ~71% chance of easing by September. The Fed’s balancing act continues: While unemployment is ticking up, it hasn’t surged fast enough to force immediate action. Traders and policymakers will now turn their focus to upcoming CPI and PPI data for July.

⚠️ Tariff Tensions Return as Trump Eyes Up to 70% Duties Ahead of July 9 Deadline

President Donald Trump is preparing to reintroduce aggressive tariffs of up to 70% on select Chinese imports, as part of his 2025 campaign platform. The move is being framed as a direct push to "rebalance trade" and protect American manufacturing, but, markets are already reacting to the potential global fallout. The plan, expected to be unveiled around July 9, could include expanded duties across key categories like EVs, semiconductors, and green tech, sectors where China has recently accelerated exports. Trump has also suggested additional tariffs on Mexico and other trade partners deemed “unfair,” raising fears of a renewed wave of protectionism.

The threat has already weighed on risk sentiment:

S&P 500 futures dipped ~0.6% earlier in the week.
The U.S. dollar weakened modestly, while emerging market stocks and currencies sold off.
Investors rotated into defensive sectors and safe-haven assets like gold and utilities.

Analysts warn this could create a new inflationary headwind, further complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate path, especially if trade tensions escalate in Q3. With markets already pricing in geopolitical risk from the Middle East and rate uncertainty from the Fed, the tariff overhang adds another layer of volatility heading into earnings season and mid-summer macro data.

🛢️ Russia’s Oil & Gas Revenues Drop to 18-Month Low as Price Caps and Output Cuts Bite

Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell to their lowest levels since January 2023, with June intake hitting just RUB 521 billion (~$5.8 billion USD), according to Russian Finance Ministry data. That’s down 12% month-over-month, as global crude prices slipped and sanctions continue to limit Russia’s export margins.

Key drivers of the decline include:

Lower Urals crude prices, which averaged around $65 – $66 per barrel, significantly below global benchmarks.
Reduced export volumes, especially to Europe and select Asian markets due to ongoing G7 price cap enforcement.
Tax and duty revenue from gas sales also dropped, as pipeline exports remained constrained.

This revenue slump could strain Russia’s fiscal policy, especially as war-related spending remains elevated. The Kremlin has increasingly relied on its rainy day fund and gold reserves to plug budget gaps, but economists warn that prolonged revenue pressure could trigger deeper spending cuts or tax hikes domestically. Meanwhile, markets are watching whether Russia will stick with its OPEC+ output agreements in the second half of 2025, or push back in an attempt to reclaim market share.

💵 Yields Rise as Strong Jobs Data Dials Back Rate Cut Hopes

U.S. Treasury yields climbed this week as investors reacted to the strong June jobs report and recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 10-year yield rose nearly 8 basis points, ending at 4.861%, while the 2-year yield edged up to 4.72%.

The shift followed the release of better than expected labor data (147,000 jobs added, 4.1% unemployment), which signaled that the labor market remains sturdy despite months of policy tightening. Traders saw the data as reducing the urgency for the Fed to ease rates, at least in the near term.

Market pricing now reflects:

6% chance of a July rate cut (down from ~18% earlier in the month)
Still roughly 70 – 72% chance of a cut by September, depending on inflation trends

With inflation still hovering above 2%, Fed officials are walking a fine line, balancing progress on price stability with rising but not yet recessionary unemployment. The uptick in yields also weighed slightly on rate-sensitive equities, though broader markets continued to hold firm amid optimism over AI growth and trade momentum.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets moved higher this week as optimism around trade progress and solid economic data fueled momentum in equities. While the June jobs report tempered immediate Fed rate cut hopes, investors largely maintained confidence in a soft-landing scenario. Meanwhile, AI optimism and global easing trends kept mega-cap tech names in the spotlight. With bond yields rising, gold steady, and tariff tensions brewing, positioning tilted toward growth, defense, and resilience. Here are the names that stood out from June 30 to July 4:

Nvidia (NVDA) – Continued to lead the AI trade, climbing alongside broader tech as Nasdaq hit new highs. Investors remain bullish on chip demand and data center tailwinds.
Tesla (TSLA) – Extended last week’s rally on mounting excitement over its upcoming robotaxi reveal (August 8). Shares surged again as speculative appetite returned.
TripAdvisor (TRIP) – Jumped 16% after reports of an activist investor stake, sparking renewed M&A speculation and optimism over strategic changes.
Currys (CURY.L) – Gained after posting a 37% profit jump and reinstating its dividend, signaling a strong turnaround in retail execution and margin improvement.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) – Held steady as gold prices hovered below $2,300/oz, providing a hedge as trade policy risk and rate path uncertainty lingered.
Parker-Hannifin (PH) – Advanced on strength in industrial demand and as part of a broader rotation into cyclical names benefiting from resilient economic indicators.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

That’s it for this week’s market recap, thanks for checking in. Wall Street soared to fresh record highs, even as a strong jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher and cooled near term rate cut hopes. TripAdvisor popped on activist buzz, Currys impressed with a 37% profit jump, and gold held steady as traders eyed inflation risk and geopolitical flare ups. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats re-entered the chat, rattling global markets ahead of the July 9 deadline. Risk assets stayed firm, but headwinds are building. We’ll be back next week with the full breakdown of what moved, what mattered, and what’s next as earnings season kicks off, and once again to our U.S. readers, Happy 4th of July!

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋