Banks Shine, Gold Glitters, and Global Warnings Echo: Mid-October Market Recap

Daniel Ledenev
Oct 19
5 min read

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (October 13 to 17, 2025)

The third week of October was shorter but still packed with key market catalysts. Big banks kicked off earnings season with strong results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, offering a dose of optimism amid renewed market volatility. Gold prices surged to record highs as investors sought safety following fresh trade jitters and geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, the IMF’s annual meeting in Washington dominated headlines, with global leaders warning of rising debt risks and a fragile economic recovery. Though lighter on volume, the week reminded traders that even a short stretch can bring big market shifts.

Happy Thanksgiving to all the Canadian readers!

🏦 Wall Street’s Biggest Banks Kick Off Earnings on a High Note

Wall Street’s largest lenders started third-quarter earnings season with momentum, as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reported resilient profits and stronger than expected trading and lending revenues. Analysts expect combined profits among the six major U.S. banks to rise roughly 6% year-over-year, fueled by robust fee income, healthier loan margins, and a recovery in dealmaking. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs led the way with strong performance in investment banking and fixed-income trading, while Citigroup highlighted growth in global deal flow after M&A volumes topped $1 trillion this quarter. Executives struck an optimistic tone, pointing to a stable consumer base and renewed corporate borrowing despite lingering tariff and policy uncertainty.

Investors, however, remain cautious. Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan) and David Solomon (Goldman Sachs) both warned of a potential market correction within the next two years, citing lofty asset prices and geopolitical volatility. Shares of major banks have still outperformed the broader market this year, with JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley up between 23% and 40% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 by nearly ten points. Meanwhile, cracks in the credit market began to surface as Jefferies Financial Group and First Citizens BancShares were linked to the bankruptcies of First Brands Group and Tricolor Auto, raising early concerns about exposure to leveraged corporate debt. For now, credit quality remains stable, but analysts warn that higher funding costs could test that resilience as the cycle matures.

🟡🪙Gold Pulls Back After Record High as Dollar Strengthens

Gold prices hit an all-time high above $4,300 per ounce this week before retreating sharply on Friday, as a stronger U.S. dollar and President Trump’s softened tone on China tariffs cooled the rally. The precious metal climbed as much as 4.8% for the week, its best performance in five years, before settling around $4,211/oz, still capping a milestone run driven by global uncertainty and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Analysts said gold’s surge was fueled by a mix of central bank buying, ETF inflows, and renewed safe-haven demand amid trade tensions and stress in regional U.S. banks. The rally briefly echoed the 2008 financial crisis, when investors sought protection from market instability. Trump’s confirmation of an upcoming meeting with President Xi Jinping helped ease fears of an all-out trade escalation, prompting profit-taking across precious metals. Silver followed gold’s path, falling 5.6% after hitting a record high of $54.47 earlier in the week.

Despite the pullback, market strategists remain bullish. Standard Chartered forecast gold to average $4,488 in 2026, while HSBC raised its 2025 outlook to $3,455 and expects prices could reach $5,000 by 2026. With rate cuts still on the table and festival demand surging in Asia, investors view gold’s correction as a pause, not the end of its historic run.

🌐 IMF Meeting Turns Tense as Bessent Urges Tougher Stance on China

Geopolitics took center stage at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington this week, as Scott Bessent, a former Soros Fund executive and current U.S. representative to the IMF, called for a harder line on China’s economic influence. Bessent urged both institutions to tighten oversight on Chinese lending practices and demand greater transparency from state-backed projects across developing economies.

His remarks underscored growing Western concern that China’s expanding role in global finance, particularly through its Belt and Road investments could distort debt sustainability efforts in vulnerable countries. The comments came as the IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report, warning of elevated risks from asset overvaluation and rising sovereign debt burdens worldwide. Bessent’s comments sparked debate among delegates, with emerging market representatives cautioning that politicizing lending decisions could slow progress on global development goals. Still, the IMF reaffirmed its commitment to “fair and accountable lending standards,” signaling that tensions between Washington and Beijing are increasingly shaping the tone of international economic policy discussions.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

The week may have been shorter, but it packed a punch as strong bank earnings, record gold prices, and warnings from the IMF kept investors on edge. Safe-haven demand surged while risk appetite wavered, and market leadership rotated sharply toward defensive names. Here are the tickers that stood out:

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD | 3.3%) – Rallied alongside bullion as gold surged above $4,300 per ounce before easing late week, fueled by rate-cut bets and geopolitical uncertainty.
HSBC Holdings (HSBC | 0.1%) – Could rise after the IMF’s call for tighter global lending standards boosted large, diversified banks seen as better equipped to weather policy shifts.
Netflix (NFLX | 1.7%) – Pulled back amid risk-off sentiment and rising Treasury demand, as investors rotated out of high-growth tech and back into value-oriented sectors.
Newmont Corporation (NEM | 6.6%) – Extended gains as investors piled into miners following the spike in precious-metal prices and strong physical demand from Asia.
Visa Inc. (V | 0.5%) – Slipped as global financial leaders warned of slower growth in cross-border trade and payments, signaling potential headwinds for transaction volumes.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

The third week of October may have been shorter, but it didn’t lack action. Big banks kicked off earnings season on a strong note, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup posting resilient results and upbeat outlooks. Gold hit record highs above $4,300/oz before pulling back as Trump’s softer comments on China eased safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the IMF’s annual meeting in Washington sparked global debate after U.S. officials urged tougher oversight on Chinese lending practices. With markets juggling solid earnings, fresh geopolitical tension, and cautious global forecasts, investors head into late October balancing confidence with growing unease.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋