Gold Crashes, CPI Cools, and Earnings Light Up Wall Street

Daniel Ledenev
Oct 25
6 min read

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (October 20 to 24, 2025)

The fourth week of October brought in a mix of relief and rally across Wall Street. A cooler than expected U.S. CPI report reignited hopes for another Federal Reserve rate cut, sending the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to fresh record highs (if you were trading the futures exchange I hope you didn't get wicked out). Gold briefly retreated from its peak as the dollar strengthened, before stabilizing on renewed geopolitical caution. Earnings dominated headlines, with Tesla rebounding after better than feared results, Netflix impressing investors with subscriber growth, and Intel surging on an upbeat chip outlook. Valero Energy, meanwhile, posted a sharp profit rebound on stronger refining margins. With inflation showing signs of easing and corporate earnings holding steady, markets entered the final stretch of October on a cautiously optimistic note.

🟡Gold’s Glitter Fades: Biggest One Day Drop Since 2020 Shakes Safe-Haven Markets

Gold markets were hit with a stunning reversal this week, plunging more than 5% on October 21, marking the metal’s worst single day drop since August 2020. After months of relentless gains that pushed prices above $4,380 per ounce, profit-taking, a stronger U.S. dollar, and easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing triggered a sharp correction across precious metals. Analysts attributed the decline to an overheated rally gold had surged nearly 60% year to date, and 25% in just two months, fueled by record inflows into gold ETFs and mounting geopolitical fear. But as President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, safe haven demand evaporated almost overnight. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4%, further pressuring gold by making it more expensive for foreign buyers.

Physical demand also cooled as India’s Diwali buying season ended, removing a key support pillar. Silver and platinum followed gold lower, dropping 8.7% and 6%, respectively, confirming a broad based metals correction. Despite the sell-off, most analysts, including Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper, view the decline as a technical correction rather than the end of gold’s bull market, citing strong central bank buying and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. At week’s end, gold hovered near $4,080 per ounce, holding critical support at $4,000. While traders brace for short-term volatility, long-term sentiment remains upbeat, with projections for gold to average $4,400 to $4,500 in 2026, supported by structural shifts toward hard assets in an uncertain global economy.

📊 CPI Cools, Markets Cheer as Inflation Eases and Rate Cut Bets Rise

Wall Street rallied to close out the week as fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data signaled cooling inflation, bolstering investor confidence in an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut. The September report showed headline CPI rising just 0.3% month-over-month, slightly below expectations, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.2%, marking its softest pace since early spring.

On an annual basis, both headline and core CPI stood at 3.0%, easing from prior readings and fueling hopes that the Fed could lower rates by another 25 basis points next week, bringing the federal funds rate below 4% for the first time in three years. Bond yields fell roughly 20 basis points as traders priced in a more dovish outlook, and the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all extended gains into Friday’s session.

The positive inflation surprise also came alongside a busy day of earnings releases. Procter & Gamble (P&G) beat estimates with stronger consumer demand, General Dynamics reported solid defense-sector margins, and HCA Healthcare posted a massive +23% earnings surprise, underscoring the resilience in key sectors. With inflation cooling and rate relief likely on the horizon, optimism surged heading into next week’s high-profile earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon. For now, investors are breathing a sigh of relief and inflation appears to be finally bending in the right direction.

Earnings Roundup: Tech and Energy Take Center Stage

🚗 Tesla

Earnings season rolled on with a mix of triumphs and turbulence across major sectors. In tech, Tesla returned to revenue growth after two consecutive quarters of declines, reporting a 12% jump to $28.1 billion, though profits disappointed investors. Earnings per share came in at $0.50, missing estimates as net income plunged 37% year-over-year amid surging R&D and AI-related expenses. While automotive revenue climbed 6%, the company’s energy business stole the spotlight; up 44% to $3.42 billion, now accounting for nearly a quarter of total sales. Tesla’s results were overshadowed by shrinking European demand, the expiration of U.S. EV tax credits, and a lack of forward guidance, sending shares lower despite strong product pipeline updates, including its growing Robotaxi network and upcoming Cybercab production in 2026.

🎬 Netflix

Netflix also saw its stock tumble after a one-time Brazilian tax dispute led to an unexpected earnings miss. Revenue still rose 17% to $11.5 billion, but EPS landed at $5.87, short of expectations. Excluding the tax hit, executives said performance would have surpassed guidance. Despite the setback, Netflix recorded its best ad-sales quarter to date, with ad revenue on track to double year-over-year and overall subscriber and pricing growth remaining robust. The streamer reaffirmed its full-year forecast of $45.1 billion in revenue, representing 16% annual growth, and teased a strong Q4 lineup; from Stranger Things’ final season to Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. However, shares slid roughly 9% as investors digested softer profit margins and lingering uncertainty over international tax impacts.

🏿 Intel

Chipmaker Intel delivered one of the week’s biggest surprises, posting a third-quarter revenue beat of $13.7 billion versus $13.1 billion expected, and earnings per share of $0.23, a massive upside from the $0.01 analysts had forecast. The company’s gross margin rebounded to over 51%, supported by aggressive cost cuts and a shift toward higher margin AI and server chips. Intel’s turnaround gained further credibility through its newly announced partnership with Microsoft, which will use Intel’s 18A process for its next generation Maia AI chips, a key validation of Intel’s foundry ambitions. Foundry losses narrowed significantly as government support and new client orders flowed in. Shares climbed as investors embraced signs of sustainable recovery and renewed confidence in Intel’s role as a cornerstone of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing.

⚡ Valero Energy

Meanwhile, in energy, Valero Energy reported a sharp rebound, with third-quarter net income surging to $1.1 billion ($3.53 per share) from $364 million ($1.14) a year earlier. Strong refining margins and operational efficiency powered the performance, while the company announced plans to optimize its St. Charles FCC unit by 2026 to further boost output. Analysts maintained bullish sentiment on Valero, highlighting its strong cash generation and shareholder returns despite challenges in renewable diesel and leverage risk.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets faced a turbulent stretch as gold’s record-breaking rally abruptly reversed, inflation data surprised to the downside, and a busy earnings slate from major tech and industrial names kept volatility high. Investors rotated defensively midweek, with sharp moves across commodities, finance, and payment sectors reflecting shifting sentiment. Here are the tickers that stood out:

Barrick Gold (GOLD | -3.3%) – Dropped in tandem with bullion’s worst single-day decline since 2020, as traders took profits following a multi-month surge in precious metals. The pullback highlighted how sensitive gold miners remain to price swings in spot metal markets.
PayPal Holdings (PYPL | 3.5%) – Rose on optimism tied to softer CPI data, which boosted rate-cut expectations and spending sentiment. Investors also bet that easing inflation could reinvigorate consumer transactions heading into the holiday quarter.
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT | 0.8%) – Benefited from improved industrial outlooks and infrastructure-linked demand, as energy and commodity volatility rekindled interest in companies with exposure to global construction and mining projects.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM | -1.0%) – Advanced after CPI data suggested the Fed may cut rates sooner, potentially easing borrowing costs and supporting lending margins. The move extended gains for large banks following last week’s strong earnings.
Coinbase Global (COIN | 5.5%) – Slipped as Bitcoin followed gold lower in a synchronized sell-off, with analysts citing a high correlation between the two assets. The decline erased part of crypto’s early-October rally and underscored fragile risk appetite in digital assets.

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🛎️That’s a Wrap!

The fourth week of October kept markets on edge as gold saw its biggest drop since 2020, inflation cooled, and earnings painted a mixed picture. Softer CPI data boosted hopes for Fed rate cuts, lifting stocks midweek before profit-taking set in. Tesla and Intel impressed with revenue rebounds, while Netflix slipped on tax concerns and Valero gained on strong refining margins. With gold correcting sharply and rate optimism rising, investors closed the week cautiously optimistic heading into November.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋