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Records, Risks & Rallies: This Week in Global Markets

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (July 21 to 25, 2025)

This week, Wall Street kept climbing as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched fresh record highs, fueled by solid earnings and optimism around global trade negotiations. But behind the rally, investors started shifting their focus. A new U.S. – Japan trade deal, expectations of a U.S.– EU tariff reset, and a steady hand from the ECB dominated headlines. Commodities bounced, the dollar gained strength, and oil pushed higher on Chinese demand. Meanwhile, strong bank earnings met a muted market reaction, a sign that macro risks are starting to outweigh bottom-line beats. With central banks holding steady and the next round of trade deadlines approaching, the tone is bullish, but not blind.



📊 S&P 500 Clears 5th Straight Record as Earnings and Trade Hopes Fuel the Rally

The market kept climbing this week, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high for the fifth consecutive session and the Nasdaq notching fresh highs as well. Investors continued to lean into strong earnings, particularly from the tech and financial sectors, while growing optimism around global trade helped lift broader sentiment. Roughly 70% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings this week beat analyst expectations, adding credibility to the rally. The momentum was further supported by news of a finalized U.S. and Japan trade deal, and reports that negotiations with the EU and Mexico are progressing ahead of the August tariff deadline. At the same time, investors shrugged off lingering macro risks like inflation and rising bond yields, focusing instead on the idea that trade tensions may be easing and that central banks are willing to stay patient. The result: renewed risk appetite across equities, with growth names and cyclicals both participating. Whether the rally has legs will likely depend on next week’s earnings from the tech giants, but for now, markets are firmly in “buy-the-dip” mode, backed by solid fundamentals and improving global headlines.



📉 The Dow Gets Left Behind

The rally kept rolling this week, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high for the fifth straight day, while the Nasdaq 100 also hit fresh highs, driven by tech and earnings strength. But one major index sat out: the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Despite a wave of strong earnings and improving trade sentiment, the Dow lagged, up just 1% over the past month, compared to a nearly 4% gain in the S&P and over 5% in the Nasdaq 100. The gap reflects a broader shift in market leadership, with investors rotating toward growth-heavy sectors like tech, communications, and discretionary, and away from the value and industrial tilt of the Dow.


Several forces are behind the divergence. While Dow components like UnitedHealth, Chevron, and Boeing have struggled under macro pressure and sector-specific headwinds, mega-cap tech names; including Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, have carried the broader market higher. Additionally, the S&P benefits from its market-cap weighting, meaning gains in trillion-dollar names have a bigger index impact than they do in the price-weighted Dow. And with the market now pricing in fewer rate cuts, the growth-over-value trade is back in focus. So while headlines celebrate new highs, the rally is getting more selective, and unless we see broader participation from sectors like industrials, energy, and healthcare, the current momentum may lack staying power. For now, tech is the engine, and the S&P is the passenger riding the front seat.



🛢️ WTI Crude Steadies Near $66 as Inventory Draw and Trade Optimism Support Prices

Oil prices held steady this week, with WTI crude hovering near $66 per barrel, as a combination of inventory drawdowns and improving global trade sentiment helped stabilize a market that had faced selling pressure in recent weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger than expected draw of 5.4 million barrels, easing short-term oversupply concerns. This came alongside signs of progress in U.S. – Japan and U.S. – EU trade negotiations, which improved the demand outlook for global energy flows.


At the same time, technical support levels, including the 200 day moving average continued to hold, encouraging traders to re enter long positions. The pullback from recent highs now appears to be consolidating, with many analysts seeing $65 to $68 as a key trading zone heading into next week’s Fed decision and OPEC updates. Broader risk sentiment also helped, with equity markets hitting record highs and the dollar strengthening, reducing volatility across commodities. While some caution remains around Chinese demand and potential tariff re-escalation, the worst of the selling seems to have passed, at least for now. If trade negotiations stay on track and inventories continue to tighten, crude could find room to rally again in the weeks ahead.



🥈 Silver Eyes $40 as Dollar Weakens and Fed Pivot Speculation Builds

Silver prices caught a strong bid this week, with XAG/USD pushing toward the $30 mark, as a softening U.S. dollar and renewed speculation around a potential Fed policy shift drove investor appetite for precious metals. According to FXE, technical momentum has accelerated in recent sessions, with silver now targeting the $40 zone as the next key resistance level if macro tailwinds hold. The rally has been fueled by both declining real yields and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could start easing as early as Q4, especially if inflation continues to moderate and economic data cools. Beyond rate dynamics, the bid for silver is also tied to safe haven demand and industrial recovery hopes, particularly as global trade negotiations stabilize and supply chain sentiment improves. The metal has outperformed gold on a percentage basis over the past two weeks, and ETF flows suggest retail and institutional interest are both picking up. If the dollar continues to retreat and the Fed leans dovish next week, silver could break out of its current range, and potentially test multi-year highs not seen since 2011.


🚗 European Stocks Rally as Automakers Lead on U.S. – EU Trade Optimism

European markets saw a strong move higher this week, with the Stoxx 600 index hitting a two-week high, led by automakers rallying on renewed U.S. – EU trade deal momentum. Shares of Volkswagen, Stellantis, and BMW jumped 3 – 5% following reports that trade negotiators from both sides were nearing an agreement to lower tariffs on autos and industrial goods, easing a key pressure point that’s weighed on cross-border manufacturing and exports since early 2024. The rally was broad based but especially strong in cyclical and industrial sectors, as investors bet that a reduced tariff environment could boost earnings and stabilize demand in the second half of the year. The trade optimism came on the heels of a finalized U.S. – Japan agreement and added to a wave of global relief as supply chain tensions appeared to ease. With European growth still fragile and the ECB holding rates steady, the trade breakthrough offers a potential tailwind for corporate margins and investor sentiment heading into Q3. While a formal deal hasn't been announced yet, signs of progress were enough to reprice risk assets across the region, and for now, markets are assuming that trade friction is easing rather than escalating.




👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets kept the momentum going early in the week as tech earnings and trade optimism fueled fresh highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. But as the week progressed, rising bond yields, tariff noise, and Fed pivot uncertainty brought volatility back into the mix. Defensive names and commodity plays began rotating back into focus, while earnings reactions grew more stock-specific. Here are the standout names from this week’s action:

  • Microsoft (MSFT) – Gained ahead of earnings as investors priced in strong AI cloud demand. The stock hit a new all-time high midweek, reinforcing its leadership among mega-cap tech.

  • Nvidia (NVDA) – Continued to hover near the $4T valuation mark despite mild profit-taking, staying at the center of AI-driven trades and broader sentiment shifts.

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) – Extended last week’s gains after upbeat commentary from its investment banking division and growing confidence in capital markets activity.

  • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) – Remained elevated as copper prices held firm amid ongoing tariff premiums, tight supply, and bullish sentiment across commodities.

  • ExxonMobil (XOM) – Stayed in favor as oil prices stabilized around $66, supported by inventory drawdowns and strong Chinese import data.

  • Prologis (PLD) – Pushed higher once again as global trade rotation and logistics reallocation themes drove continued strength in the industrial REIT space.



🛎️That’s a Wrap!

That’s it for this week’s recap, and what a week it was. Markets kicked off strong with a fifth straight S&P 500 record, powered by upbeat earnings and hopes of a U.S. – EU trade breakthrough. But as the days rolled on, things got choppier. The June CPI came in hotter than hoped, pushing bond yields higher and dialing back some of the early optimism. Oil steadied after a sharp pullback, helped by improving demand signals, while silver surged on Fed pivot bets and a weaker dollar. Meanwhile, global headlines kept traders on edge, with rising tensions in the Red Sea, China’s weak Q2 GDP print, and tariffs still in focus. As we roll into the heart of earnings season, one thing’s clear, this market may be setting records, but it’s not cruising on autopilot.


Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋



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