From $4T Nvidia to 50% Tariffs: This Week Had Everything

Daniel Ledenev
Jul 12
7 min read

Updated: Aug 2

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (July 7 to 11, 2025)

Summer calm? Not this week. What started as a smooth ride to new highs took a sharp turn as tariffs stormed back into headlines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirted with record territory midweek, powered by AI names and solid earnings (hello, Levi’s), but that momentum hit resistance as copper tariffs, rising yields, and global trade tensions sparked a pullback. Commodities went wild, with copper surging double digits and oil climbing on supply fears. Bitcoin popped to new highs, while investors braced for next week’s inflation data and the start of earnings season. Let’s break down the market mayhem.

📈 S&P 500 Nears Record Highs as Bulls Weigh Tariffs, Tech, and Yields

The S&P 500 came within just 0.1% of a new all-time high this week, lifted by strong tech momentum and optimism around disinflation trends. Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft once again led the charge, as enthusiasm around AI-driven growth showed no signs of cooling. The Nasdaq 100 also held near its peak, with the index up over 22% year-to-date. Investors found comfort in softer inflation signals out of China, signs of consumer resilience in the U.S., and dovish undertones from recent central bank commentary. But it wasn’t all smooth sailing, bond yields rose midweek following a strong jobs report, trimming near-term rate cut expectations and tempering some of the rally's heat.

Meanwhile, headlines around aggressive new U.S. tariffs, particularly a 50% levy on copper and sweeping measures targeting Canada, Brazil, and the EU, sparked concerns about rising input costs and global trade frictions. That triggered a sharp move higher in commodities and added uncertainty around Q3 earnings. Still, the broader market remained resilient. Cyclical sectors showed modest participation, and small caps briefly caught a bid, suggesting improving breadth beneath the surface. While rising yields and trade risk are clearly on the radar, the market’s ability to digest those headwinds without breaking trend speaks to underlying strength. Heading into earnings season and key CPI data, the bull case remains intact, but, perhaps with a few more speed bumps ahead.

💻 Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion as AI Mania Keeps Lifting Markets

Nvidia crossed another historic milestone this week, briefly reaching a $4 trillion market valuation before pulling back slightly, putting it in the same league as Apple and Microsoft. The chipmaker has become the undisputed face of the AI revolution, with demand for its high-performance GPUs surging across industries, from cloud computing to autonomous vehicles and generative AI platforms. Its stock has more than doubled in 2025 alone, and the company now makes up a massive portion of both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes, giving it outsized influence over broader market performance.

This rally isn’t just about hype, it’s backed by explosive revenue growth, record margins, and massive orders from major cloud providers and tech giants. Nvidia’s data center business is the primary growth engine, and investors see few signs of slowdown as global firms continue pouring money into AI infrastructure. The company’s rise helped push the Nasdaq to record highs this week and added fuel to the broader risk-on tone, even as macro headwinds like tariffs and rising yields came back into focus. In a market increasingly driven by fewer, bigger names, Nvidia remains the clearest symbol of the AI-fueled bull run.

📊 June CPI in Focus: Inflation Risks Rise as Tariff Impact Surfaces

All eyes are on next week’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as early forecasts suggest a slight uptick in headline inflation, a shift that’s drawing renewed attention amid fresh tariff announcements. According to Morningstar, economists expect CPI to rise 0.2% month-over-month, with headline inflation climbing to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in May. While core CPI (which excludes food and energy) is expected to hold steady at 3.4%, some analysts are warning that rising input costs tied to new U.S. tariffs, especially on copper and imported goods, could start filtering into prices in the months ahead. The report comes at a critical moment, with markets pricing in a soft landing scenario and rate cut hopes still lingering for later this year. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could shake that outlook and push Treasury yields even higher, especially if the data hints at sticky services inflation or tariff-driven cost pressures. That makes next week’s numbers a potential market mover, not just for stocks, but also for bonds, commodities, and Fed policy expectations. With inflation cooling for much of the year, any reversal could reintroduce volatility just as earnings season kicks off.

🌍 Trump Tariffs Expand: EU, Mexico, Canada, and More in the Crosshairs

Trade tensions ratcheted higher this week as former President Donald Trump announced a sweeping new round of tariffs, targeting a wide range of imports from the EU, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, the Philippines, and more. The measures include a 50% tariff on copper, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, and expanded duties on everything from autos to aluminum. Trump cited "unfair trade practices" and the need to protect U.S. industry, but global reaction was swift, with EU officials threatening retaliation, and economists warning the move could stoke inflation and strain supply chains. The announcement comes just months ahead of the U.S. election and is already rippling through markets. Commodities like copper surged on supply fears, while global partners like Peru and Canada voiced concern over potential economic fallout. For investors, the tariffs add another layer of macro uncertainty at a time when inflation is showing signs of reaccelerating and the Fed remains cautious. If the situation escalates, it could impact Q3 corporate margins and global trade flows, especially in materials, autos, and industrials. For now, markets are watching closely, and bracing for possible retaliation.

🟠 🪙🟠🟠🟠🟠Copper Spikes as Tariffs Raise Supply Fears and Inflation Risk

Copper prices exploded higher this week after the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, triggering fears of tighter supply and ripple effects across the economy. Futures surged as much as 13% in a single session, marking the biggest one-day jump since 1968. According to CNBC, the U.S. is now facing a significant pricing premium, as domestic copper becomes more expensive relative to global markets. This has serious implications; copper is a key input for construction, electronics, autos, and especially clean energy infrastructure. Analysts warn that the tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. manufacturers and act as a new source of inflation, just as markets had started to price in rate cuts. The move also adds pressure on global supply chains, with Peru and Canada, major copper exporters caught in the crossfire. While commodity investors cheered the spike, the broader market sees potential downside: higher input costs, lower margins, and yet another headwind for industrial production. For now, copper is the most visible signal that trade policy may once again drive inflation risk back into the spotlight.

🛢️ Oil Gains Over 2% as Markets Weigh Outlook, Tariffs, and Sanctions

Oil prices rebounded this week, with Brent crude up 3% and WTI rising 2.8%, as traders reacted to shifting supply dynamics and mounting geopolitical risks. The rally was driven by a combination of tight global inventories, U.S. tariff announcements, and ongoing sanctions on Russian exports, all of which fueled concern about future supply constraints. The potential for retaliatory trade measures also added to the uncertainty, especially as energy markets brace for a more fragmented global economy. At the same time, signs of resilient demand in parts of Asia helped reinforce the bullish case. While recession fears have faded in the U.S., oil markets remain hypersensitive to any macro surprises, particularly around inflation or Fed policy. The move higher comes after several quiet weeks, and while volatility remains contained for now, crude continues to trade in a sensitive zone. Investors will be watching upcoming inventory data and OPEC+ signals closely, as the balance between demand recovery and geopolitical disruption remains razor thin.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets took investors on a rollercoaster this week, with record highs early on giving way to profit-taking and macro jitters by Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surged midweek on tech strength and soft inflation hopes, but rising bond yields and escalating trade tensions brought volatility back into the mix. Still, several names stood out, from AI juggernauts to commodity hedges and earnings surprises. Here are the stocks that made noise this week:

Nvidia (NVDA) – Briefly topped a $4 trillion market cap, continuing to dominate AI momentum trades. The stock remains a bellwether for tech sentiment and AI infrastructure demand.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) – Surged over 11% after reporting strong earnings, driven by solid demand, margin gains, and upbeat guidance. A rare consumer win in a tricky retail environment.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) – Spiked alongside copper prices as the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on copper, fueling a double-digit rally in miners tied to supply fears.
ExxonMobil (XOM) – Rose nearly 3% as oil prices climbed and energy stocks rebounded on tightening supply, renewed geopolitical risk, and sanctions-driven uncertainty.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) – Continued to act as a macro hedge, holding firm near key levels as gold remained steady amid trade tensions, inflation chatter, and rising yields.
Prologis (PLD) – Caught a quiet bid on renewed interest in logistics and real estate tied to supply chain rerouting and tariff impacts, suggesting a shift in industrial allocation.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

That’s it for this week’s recap, thanks for checking in. Stocks pushed to new highs midweek before pulling back as tariffs and rising yields returned to the spotlight. Nvidia hit $4T, Levi’s popped on earnings, and copper surged on trade tensions. Oil climbed, gold held steady, and bond markets priced in hotter inflation risk. Next week brings the June CPI report and the start of earnings season, so stay tuned, the summer slowdown is anything but slow.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋