September Shake-Up: Tariffs, Tech, and Gold at Record Highs

Daniel Ledenev
Sep 27
5 min read

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (September 22 to 26, 2025)

The final full week of September didn’t disappoint. Tech optimism kept Wall Street energized, with AI headlines fueling rallies even as bond yields hovered near cycle highs. Gold broke through fresh records as investors sought safety, while currencies across the globe weakened under the weight of synchronized rate cuts. Earnings season picked up with big names in retail and semiconductors on deck, and political risks from U.S. budget talks to new tariff tensions. This should remind investors and the markets that volatility is never far away.

📉 AI Rally Pauses as Powell Strikes a Cautious Tone

Wall Street’s three day AI-driven surge came to a halt Tuesday as tech stocks slipped and Treasury yields eased following remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, giving back part of its record-setting run after unveiling a massive investment in OpenAI. The Nasdaq fell 0.95%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.55%, and the Dow edged down 0.19%, reflecting investor unease about what catalyst might push markets higher after three years of double digit gains.

Powell emphasized the Fed’s delicate balance between fighting inflation and addressing labor market weakness, offering little clarity on the timing of another rate cut. Traders slightly raised their bets on an October cut, now seeing a 94% chance of a 25 bps move, while leaving a slim 6% chance for a pause. Bond yields dipped, with the 10-year down to 4.11%, while gold surged to a new record near $3,764/oz as investors hedged against volatility. Meanwhile, oil rose more than $1 a barrel after talks to restart Kurdish exports collapsed, adding supply concerns back into the energy mix.

🌍 Trump Unveils Sweeping New Tariffs, Rattling Global Trade

President Donald Trump announced a fresh wave of tariffs that will take effect October 1, targeting multiple industries and adding to already tense global trade conditions. The measures include a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals, 50% on kitchen cabinets and vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks. Officials framed the move as part of Trump’s broader strategy to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit, while also linking the tariffs to revenue generation at a time of high government borrowing. The new levies come through the rarely used Section 232 national security clause, the same mechanism previously deployed on steel and aluminum imports. Trump argued that reliance on foreign-made drugs and vehicles represents a national security risk, but critics say the approach risks higher consumer prices, disrupted supply chains, and retaliatory action from trading partners.

Pharmaceutical companies were especially alarmed, warning that the tariffs could significantly raise costs for U.S. patients and undercut global research collaboration. Industry groups in Europe and Asia echoed concerns, hinting at possible trade challenges at the WTO. Automakers and truck manufacturers also warned of knock on effects for supply chains already stretched by tariffs on Chinese components. Markets took note but remained focused on inflation and interest rates, with analysts cautioning that expanded tariffs could fuel price pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With the measures set to take effect in early October, investors are bracing for possible retaliation from major trading partners, adding another layer of uncertainty to global finance as the year heads into its final quarter.

💻 Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI Deal Highlights Expanding AI Empire

Nvidia announced a massive $100 billion investment in OpenAI, its largest to date, underscoring how central the chipmaker has become to the AI ecosystem since generative AI took off in 2022. The deal adds to an already aggressive investment spree: in recent months Nvidia committed $5B to Intel, $500M to self driving car startup Wayve, and nearly £500M ($668M) to U.K. cloud provider Nscale. The company’s portfolio has ballooned, with $4.3B in public holdings (including CoreWeave, Arm, and Applied Digital) and $3.8B in private stakes, more than doubling from last year. Many of these companies either use Nvidia’s chips, provide access to them, or build complementary AI and infrastructure technologies, further cementing Nvidia’s dominance in the sector.

Beyond OpenAI, Nvidia has invested in Mistral AI, Cohere, Runway, and Safe Superintelligence, while also taking positions in quantum computing startups like PsiQuantum and Quantinuum. Its 7% stake in CoreWeave proved especially lucrative after the cloud provider’s IPO this year. Analysts say these investments are both a hedge and a way for Nvidia to steer innovation, giving it early insight into emerging technologies while reinforcing demand for its GPUs. With Nvidia’s market cap now above $4.3 trillion and annual revenue having grown nearly 400% in just three years, the chipmaker is no longer just supplying the AI boom, it’s financing and shaping it. The OpenAI deal signals that Nvidia intends to remain at the center of AI’s next chapter, not just as a hardware provider, but as one of Silicon Valley’s most influential investors.

🟡 Gold Extends Record Run as Fed Easing Bets Mount

Gold soared to a new all-time high above $3,730/oz on Monday, marking its sixth straight weekly gain and pushing year-to-date gains past 40%. The latest rally came as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased, with investors doubling down on expectations that the Fed could cut rates again in both October and December following last week’s 25 bps reduction. While Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized a data-dependent approach, markets continue to lean dovish. Safe-haven demand also fueled bullion’s surge, with geopolitical risks, ongoing central bank accumulation, and strong inflows into gold-backed ETFs adding momentum. Analysts note that uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy has further bolstered the case for gold as a hedge. With momentum intact and investors increasingly viewing bullion as the asset of choice in times of volatility, gold’s record-breaking run shows little sign of slowing.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets stayed lively during the final full week of September (Sept 22–26) as Powell’s cautious remarks cooled the AI-fueled rally, gold hit record highs, and new tariffs stoked global trade tensions. Here are the stocks that stood out this week:

Nvidia (NVDA | 0.9%) – Bartley up after a record-setting run, even as the company unveiled a $100B OpenAI investment that cements its dominance in the AI ecosystem.
Lululemon (LULU | 4.0%) – Recovering its slump after last week’s earnings disappointment, with tariffs expected to shave $240M from profits and analysts questioning U.S. sales momentum.
Tesla (TSLA | 3.40%) – Gained ground as its board floated a performance-based pay package for Elon Musk, sparking renewed debate over governance and growth strategy.
Micron (MU | 3.40%) – In the spotlight ahead of earnings, with investors betting on improving memory chip pricing and AI-related demand.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

The final full week of September didn’t go quietly. Powell’s cautious Fed remarks cooled Wall Street’s AI-fueled rally, sending Nvidia lower even as it unveiled a historic $100B OpenAI deal. Broadcom extended gains on blockbuster results, while Lululemon stayed under pressure after its guidance cut. Gold hit yet another record above $3,730/oz, and oil climbed on renewed supply risks out of Kurdistan. Meanwhile, Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture reminded investors that trade remains front and center. With October around the corner, historically one of the market’s most volatile months, traders are bracing for more twists ahead.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋