Closing the Books on 2025

Daniel Ledenev
6 days ago
5 min read

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (Dec 29 to Jan 2, 2026!)

The final trading days of the year set the stage for what’s shaping up to be a pivotal 2026. Deal making closed out 2025 on a strong note, with Meta acquiring a Chinese founded AI startup for $2 billion, underscoring Big Tech’s race to secure cutting edge AI talent and capabilities, while SoftBank announced a $4 billion acquisition of DigitalBridge to scale next generation AI and data center infrastructure. At the same time, markets took a moment to reflect. With 2025 officially in the books, this week’s blog shifts focus to the overall performance of the year, breaking down how stocks, bonds, and commodities performed, and highlighting the biggest winners and losers of 2025.

Happy New Year to everyone! Wishing you a great and successful year ahead!

🎬 Meta Acquires Chinese-Founded AI Startup Manus for $2B

Meta has agreed to acquire Manus, a Singapore based, Chinese founded AI startup, for approximately $2 billion, strengthening its push into next generation artificial intelligence. Manus specializes in agentic AI, technology designed to complete tasks and make decisions with minimal user prompting, setting it apart from traditional chatbot models. The startup already generates revenue through subscription services for small and medium sized businesses, making it a relatively mature asset in an industry often driven by future potential. Meta plans to integrate Manus’s capabilities across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to boost automation, user engagement, and monetization. However, the deal is expected to face heightened U.S. regulatory scrutiny due to Manus’s Chinese roots, raising concerns around data security and national security. The acquisition highlights both Meta’s urgency to compete in AI and the growing role of geopolitics in tech consolidation as markets move into 2026.

⚙️ SoftBank to Acquire DigitalBridge for $4B to Scale Next Gen AI Infrastructure

SoftBank Group announced it has entered a definitive agreement to acquire DigitalBridge Group for approximately $4 billion, deepening its push into the infrastructure needed to support next generation artificial intelligence. DigitalBridge is a global digital infrastructure investor with assets spanning data centers, fiber networks, cell towers, and edge infrastructure. SoftBank said the acquisition aligns with its long term vision of building Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI), emphasizing that breakthroughs in AI require not only advanced models but also massive, scalable computing and connectivity platforms. By bringing DigitalBridge into its ecosystem, SoftBank aims to strengthen its ability to build, finance, and scale global AI infrastructure.

DigitalBridge CEO Marc Ganzi called the AI infrastructure buildout one of the most significant investment opportunities of this generation, noting that SoftBank’s capital strength and global reach will accelerate long term investment and execution. The deal highlights how infrastructure, not just software, is becoming a critical battleground as AI adoption accelerates worldwide.

📊 2025 performance overview

Equities and Debt

The year 2025 marked a powerful comeback year for global markets, defined by strong risk on sentiment and one of the most diversified rallies since the pandemic. According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management, all major asset classes delivered positive returns, making 2025 the first such year since 2020.

Equities led the charge despite early year volatility driven by renewed U.S. trade tensions. Developed market stocks fell sharply in April but rebounded strongly, finishing the year with gains above 20%. Emerging markets outperformed, returning more than 30% in dollar terms, supported by resilient Chinese equities and strong recoveries across Asia and Latin America. Notably, 2025 was the first time in two decades that the S&P 500 underperformed other major equity regions, reflecting a broadening of global growth leadership.

Fixed income also surprised to the upside. With inflation fears easing and central banks cutting rates in the second half of the year, global bonds delivered solid returns, aided by attractive starting yields and a weakening U.S. dollar. Emerging market debt stood out within credit markets, benefiting from currency appreciation and improving fundamentals.

Overall, 2025 served as a reminder of the value of diversification across regions, asset classes, and currencies. After years of U.S. dominance, market leadership broadened meaningfully, setting the stage for a more balanced global investment landscape heading into 2026

Gold

Gold began 2026 on firm footing, rising in early trade after an exceptional performance last year. Spot gold climbed above $4,370 per ounce while U.S. gold futures also moved higher, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further this year. The yellow metal’s surge in 2025 was remarkable, gaining more than 60% over the year, one of its strongest annual moves in decades, driven by easier monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical tensions that boosted safe haven demand, and strong central bank buying.

Lower interest rates make gold more attractive by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non yielding asset, while periods of market uncertainty and currency weakness have further supported investor interest. In short, gold capped off a breakout year and has started 2026 with continued upside potential as investors balance risk, inflation expectations, and global macro dynamics, making it a standout among commodities heading into the new year.

3 winners and losers of 2025

📈 Winners of 2025

1. Western Digital (WDC) – One of the top performing S&P 500 stocks, with shares surging around 280%+ on booming demand for data storage tied to AI and data-center buildouts.

2. Micron Technology (MU) – A key memory-chip maker that gained roughly 239% during the year, benefiting from strong semiconductor demand fueled by AI infrastructure spending.

3. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) – Another standout, delivering triple digit gains as enterprise and government AI adoption propelled growth.

📉 Losers of 2025

1. The Trade Desk (TTD) – Among the worst in the S&P 500, with shares plummeting about 68% amid softening digital advertising outlooks and intensifying competition.

2. Fiserv (FI) – A financial tech and payment processor whose stock fell roughly 67%, pressured by downgraded forecasts and macro challenges.

3. Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – Declined about 50% after reporting weak results and cutting its dividend to strengthen its balance sheet.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

Markets closed out 2025 on steady footing as investors shifted focus from week-to-week headlines to the bigger picture. AI driven deal activity remained front and center, while year end reviews highlighted broad gains across equities, debt, and commodities, with clear winners and losers in stocks. With light volumes and portfolios being reset, markets wrapped up the year constructive and forward looking as attention turns to 2026.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋