Capital in Motion: Deals, Data, and Global Shifts

Daniel Ledenev
Jan 10
5 min read

Updated: Jan 24

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (January 5 to 9, 2026)

The first full trading week of the year delivered a mix of headline making developments and market reactions. Geopolitical headlines including the U.S. push into Venezuela’s oil sector and President Trump urging major energy firms toward a potential $100 billion investment prize; drove energy stocks and commodity prices into focus, while broader supply concerns helped lift crude across the board. Markets also digested softer U.S. jobs data that kept rate cut expectations alive and supported safe haven demand, helping gold tick up for a strong weekly gain. Meanwhile, deal making chatter intensified as mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore rekindled merger talks, keeping investors forward looking amid lighter volumes and plenty of catalysts on all fronts.

🔓 Saudi Arabia Opens Its Stock Market to All Foreign Investors

Saudi Arabia announced it will allow all foreign investors to buy local stocks directly starting February 1, scrapping the long standing “Qualified Foreign Investor” (QFI) framework. The rule change removes minimum asset requirements and access restrictions that previously limited participation to select institutions, marking a major step toward broadening access to the Gulf’s largest equity market. Regulators said the move aims to boost liquidity, expand the investor base, and support capital inflows as the kingdom continues efforts to modernize its financial system and attract global capital. Markets reacted quickly to the announcement. Saudi equities jumped, with the Tadawul All Share Index posting its biggest intraday gain since September, led by financials and consumer names. While many large institutions already had access under prior rules, investors remain focused on whether authorities will eventually ease the 49% foreign ownership cap, viewed as the key catalyst for sustained inflows. The reform fits within Saudi Arabia’s broader push to diversify away from oil, deepen capital markets, and position itself as a more accessible destination for international investors.

🛢️ Markets React Calmly as Venezuela Conflict Shifts Energy and Defense Stocks

Markets digested the U.S. intervention in Venezuela with a notably measured response, as oil prices slipped even while energy equities surged. Brent crude fell nearly 2%, reflecting expectations that Venezuela’s limited current production, less than 1% of global supply, will have little near term impact on oil markets. In contrast, U.S. energy stocks rallied sharply, with major producers and oil services firms posting strong pre-market gains as investors looked ahead to potential long-term investment opportunities tied to Venezuela’s vast reserves. Broader markets leaned risk on, with equity futures rising across the U.S., Europe, and Asia, while defense stocks jumped globally following renewed geopolitical tensions, including rhetoric surrounding Greenland. Safe haven flows lifted gold and supported the U.S. dollar, which found rare strength amid heightened market activity. Despite the headlines, investors appear focused less on immediate disruption and more on longer-term strategic, energy, and defense implications, keeping markets steady even as geopolitical risks moved back into the spotlight.

🧑‍💼 December Jobs Report Expected to Show a Moderate Hiring Slowdown

Economists expect the December U.S. jobs report to reflect a gradual cooling in labor market conditions, with payroll growth slowing compared to November. Consensus forecasts call for roughly 55,000 jobs added, while the unemployment rate is expected to hover around 4.5%, signaling that hiring remains positive but clearly less robust than earlier in the year. Wage growth is also projected to stay muted, reinforcing the view that labor-market pressures are easing. The slowdown has been driven largely by weak hiring among small businesses, which continue to face higher borrowing costs and lingering uncertainty. Larger firms, however, have remained more resilient, helping prevent a sharper deterioration. With markets widely expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its January meeting, investors are watching the labor data closely for clues on whether additional rate cuts later in 2026 may be needed to support growth.

⛏️ Wall Street Competes for Advisory Roles in Potential Rio-Glencore Megadeal

Wall Street banks are lining up to advise on a potential Rio Tinto and Glencore merger, a deal that could create the world’s largest mining company with a valuation exceeding $200 billion. Rio confirmed it is in talks to acquire “some or all” of Glencore through an all share transaction, triggering intense competition among advisers eager to secure a role in what could generate more than $100 million in advisory fees if completed. Under UK takeover rules, Rio has until February 5 to make a formal offer or walk away. While neither company has officially named advisers, sources say JPMorgan is well positioned to advise Rio as its corporate broker, with UBS also in the mix, while Citi maintains close ties to Glencore from past transactions. The talks come as global M&A activity accelerates, supported by lower interest rates and looser regulatory scrutiny, making conditions attractive for large cross border deals. Still, there is no certainty the discussions will result in a transaction, and advisers risk walking away with minimal fees if the deal collapses, as previous Rio-Glencore merger talks did more than a decade ago.

🟡Gold Dips Ahead of Jobs Data but Remains on Track for Strong Weekly Gain

Gold prices slipped modestly on Friday as commodity index rebalancing and a firmer U.S. dollar created short-term pressure on bullion ahead of the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Spot gold eased toward $4,470 per ounce, as some investors locked in profits following a strong rally late last year. Annual adjustments to major commodity indices also prompted fund repositioning, adding to the near-term softness. Despite the pullback, gold remained on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%, supported by persistent safe-haven demand and expectations that cooling U.S. labor data could keep the Federal Reserve cautious on interest rates. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about economic growth have continued to drive investor interest in bullion, helping gold hold elevated levels as markets head further into 2026.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets navigated a busy week of geopolitical headlines, shifting rate expectations, and global capital-market changes. From Venezuela linked energy implications to Saudi Arabia opening its equity market and softer U.S. labor data, these four stocks reflected the week’s dominant themes:

Lockheed Martin (LMT | 6.1%) — Gained attention as global defense stocks rallied amid heightened geopolitical tensions tied to Venezuela and renewed strategic rhetoric around Greenland. Rising defense budgets and increased geopolitical uncertainty continue to support long-term demand for major defense contractors.
Baker Hughes (BKR | 1.8%) — Benefited from renewed focus on long term energy investment following developments in Venezuela. While near term oil prices were muted, services and infrastructure firms remain leveraged to future upstream spending rather than spot prices alone.
MSCI Inc. (MSCI | 0.6%) — In focus after Saudi Arabia opened its stock market to all foreign investors, a move that could accelerate index inclusion, capital inflows, and benchmark-driven investment activity across emerging markets.
Newmont (NEM | 5.3%) — Supported by gold’s strong weekly performance, as safe-haven demand and softer U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations for a more cautious Federal Reserve path. Elevated bullion prices continue to improve cash flow visibility for large, established producers.

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

Markets closed the week steady and forward looking as investors balanced geopolitical risk, macro data, and renewed deal momentum. Headlines around Venezuela and global defense spending lifted select sectors, while Saudi Arabia’s move to open its equity market underscored efforts to attract foreign capital. At the same time, cooling U.S. jobs data reinforced expectations that the Fed will remain cautious, supporting gold’s strong weekly performance despite short-term volatility. With dealmaking chatter picking up and policy uncertainty still in play, investors ended the week constructive — but selective — as attention turns to how 2026 themes begin to take shape.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋