AI Mega Deals, IPO Comebacks, and Golden Highs: Markets Heat Up

Daniel Ledenev
Sep 14
7 min read

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (September 8 to 12, 2025)

What a week! Inflation stayed in focus as U.S. PPI unexpectedly slipped and CPI came in near forecasts, fueling confidence that the Fed is ready to cut rates soon. Wall Street cheered, the Nasdaq hit fresh records, the S&P pushed higher, and even the Dow joined in on the rally. Oracle stole the show with massive AI deals sending its stock soaring, while Warner Bros. Discovery surged on takeover rumors. Oil prices swung on OPEC+ supply moves before easing back on U.S. demand worries, and gold held strong near highs. IPO buzz returned as Klarna and Gemini made their debuts, marking the busiest week for new listings in years. Summer might be over, but the markets definitely aren’t cooling off.

Rest In Peace Charlie Kirk, violence is never the answer.

🖥️ Oracle’s $300B OpenAI Deal Rockets Stock 43%, Ellison Nears Musk

Wall Street erupted mid-week as Oracle stunned investors with the single largest cloud contract in corporate history: a $300 billion, five-year computing deal with OpenAI. Shares skyrocketed as much as 43% on Wednesday, closing up nearly 37% at $345.69, the biggest one-day surge for the company since 1992. The rally pushed Oracle’s market cap to about $913 billion, putting the software giant on the cusp of the trillion-dollar club. The surge carried enormous personal consequences: co-founder Larry Ellison’s fortune swelled by roughly $100 billion in a single day, lifting his net worth to $392.6 billion and placing him within striking distance of Elon Musk’s $439.9 billion. Ellison’s 41% stake in Oracle has become one of the most valuable holdings in the AI era.

The deal underscores a broader AI arms race, with firms like OpenAI and xAI demanding unprecedented computing power. Oracle, once dismissed as a database relic, has reinvented itself as a cloud infrastructure contender. CEO Safra Catz promised that “several additional multi-billion-dollar customers” are in line, projecting backlog revenues that could exceed half a trillion dollars. The ripple effects extended across markets: Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD gained between 2% and 8% on expectations of surging demand for semiconductors, while rival CoreWeave jumped 15%. Analysts also pointed to Oracle’s role in the massive “Stargate” venture, a $500 billion AI infrastructure project backed by SoftBank and OpenAI, as evidence that growth could accelerate beyond 2026.

With partnerships already in place alongside Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, Oracle has multiplied its joint cloud revenues sixteen-fold in a single quarter. The stock is now up 45% year-to-date, outperforming both the Magnificent Seven and the broader S&P 500. For investors, the message is clear: Oracle’s transformation is real, its AI bets are paying off, and its march to the trillion-dollar milestone may be closer than ever.

📊 Core CPI Steady, Jobless Claims Jump; Fed Seen Sticking to Modest Cut

Investors got a mixed bag of economic signals this week. August’s core CPI held steady at 3.1% year-over-year, showing inflation isn’t flaring but also not cooling fast enough to satisfy the Fed. At the same time, jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to their highest level since 2021, with Texas accounting for much of the surge. The divergence highlights an economy where prices remain sticky even as the labor market begins to soften. Markets responded with cautious optimism. Major indexes pushed to fresh record highs, while Treasury yields drifted lower as traders reaffirmed expectations for a quarter-point Fed rate cut next week. Hopes for a larger “supersized” move didn’t gain traction, but investors now lean toward additional easing by October.

Beneath the surface, tariff-linked price spikes showed up in categories like sewing machines, fabrics, jewelry, and electronics, hinting at new pressures feeding into goods inflation. Economists warn these increases could complicate the Fed’s path even as overall conditions point toward gradual loosening. For policymakers, the message is clear: inflation progress is slow, the labor market is flashing early cracks, and rate cuts are coming, but not at the aggressive pace some had hoped.

🏦 Klarna Valued at Nearly $20B in NYSE Debut

The long-awaited Klarna IPO finally hit Wall Street, marking the largest Swedish listing in the U.S. since Spotify. Shares jumped in their New York debut, putting the buy-now, pay-later giant at a $19.65 billion valuation and signaling fresh momentum for the U.S. IPO market after years of drought. The strong start caps a rocky journey. Klarna once held a peak valuation above $45 billion before inflation and higher rates slashed it to $6.7 billion in 2022. Now, its public listing underscores renewed investor appetite for fintech and a cautious reopening of IPO windows. Selling shareholders, including Sequoia Capital and Heartland A/S, raised more than $1 billion, while CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski held on to his 7% stake.

Klarna’s debut comes amid a slate of other high-profile listings, including Gemini, marking the busiest U.S. IPO week in years. Analysts note the success could entice more fintechs to follow, though risks remain if weaker names try to ride the wave. Founded in 2005, Klarna helped pioneer the buy-now, pay-later model, letting shoppers split payments into installments. The approach has grown in popularity as households face sticky inflation and slowing income growth. Rival Affirm, valued around $29 billion, has focused on bigger-ticket items, while Klarna dominates smaller purchases and short-term loans.

🟡 Gold Prices Hover Near Record High as Rate Cut Bets Grow

Gold extended its rally last week, edging higher and holding just below fresh record levels as mounting U.S. labor market concerns fueled expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts. Spot prices climbed 0.5% to $3,650 per ounce, while futures settled near $3,689, marking the metal’s fourth straight weekly gain. The backdrop is clear: weaker jobs data, sticky inflation, and growing political pressure have reinforced calls for easier policy. President Trump once again urged the Fed to cut rates, and a Reuters poll showed near-unanimous expectations for a quarter-point reduction at next week’s meeting. Investors continue to view bullion as a prime hedge in a low-yield environment, pushing year-to-date gains close to 40%. Beyond U.S. data, central bank demand, a soft dollar, and broader global uncertainty remain powerful drivers of momentum. In Asia, China signaled reforms that could make gold trade more fluid by streamlining import and export licenses, adding another layer of support to demand.

📉 Projected U.S. Interest Rates in 5 Years: Market Bets Tilt Toward Cuts

The Federal Reserve held rates steady again in July, keeping its benchmark range at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with August CPI showing headline prices rising 2.9% year-over-year and core holding at 3.1%. At the same time, a weakening labor market and tariff-driven price pressures have complicated the Fed’s path. Markets are nearly certain of a quarter-point cut at the September 17 meeting, with traders now pricing in as many as six cuts before policy stabilizes. Analysts suggest terminal rates could fall toward 2.75% to 3.0% over the medium term, though the timing depends on how inflation and employment trends evolve. Internal dissent at recent FOMC meetings, with two governors openly favoring earlier cuts, underscores growing pressure inside the Fed. Looking further out, long-term projections point to a gradual path lower. ING forecasts rates sliding to 3% by late 2025, while some economists expect a floor closer to 2.75% if political influence accelerates easing. Historical precedent, however, shows the Fed reluctant to move too quickly when tariffs risk re-igniting cost pressures.

The bigger picture: high borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing, consumer spending, and capital-intensive sectors. Bond markets have already adjusted, with the 10-year yield hovering near 4% and traders bracing for volatility if rate-cut assumptions are challenged.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets pushed higher through the week of September 8–12, lifted by cooling inflation data and optimism around Fed rate cuts. Tech stayed in the spotlight as Oracle stunned Wall Street with a historic AI deal, while IPO momentum returned with Klarna’s highly anticipated debut. Commodities and tariff-driven price shifts added to the mix, keeping investors busy across sectors. Here are the standout names that made headlines this week:

Oracle (ORCL | %25.5) – Stole the show with a massive $300B OpenAI cloud contract, sparking the biggest single-day surge in decades and putting the company on the verge of joining the trillion-dollar club.
Nvidia, Broadcom & AMD (NVDA, AVGO, AMD | %6.5, %7.5, & %4.9) – Benefited from Oracle’s AI push, as demand for chips powering data centers sent semiconductor stocks broadly higher.
Klarna (KLAR) – Finally went public in New York after years of delays, closing with a nearly $20B valuation and marking a milestone for buy-now, pay-later fintechs.
Affirm (AFRM | %4.9) – Rode the wave of BNPL enthusiasm sparked by Klarna’s debut, as investors reassessed the growth outlook for digital lending rivals

🛎️That’s a Wrap!

That’s it for this week’s recap, thanks for tuning in! Markets powered ahead as fresh CPI data and jobless claims pointed to cooling momentum, reinforcing confidence that the Fed will deliver a September rate cut. Oracle dominated headlines with its record-shattering $300B OpenAI deal, sending ripple effects through chipmakers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, while Klarna’s long-awaited IPO gave new life to the fintech space. Gold hovered near all-time highs on safe-haven demand, oil swung on OPEC+ supply moves before easing back on weak U.S. demand, and retail names offered a mixed snapshot of consumer health. With the Fed decision just days away and AI stocks still on fire, investors head into mid-September with plenty to watch and even more to debate.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋