Hormuz, Hikes & Insider Trades: Welcome to 2026

👋 Welcome Back Investors! (March 23 to 27, 2026)

What a week. The Iran war kept markets on edge as the Strait of Hormuz disruption sent oil prices surging and inflation fears creeping back in. Treasury yields hit their highest level since July 2025, and traders started pricing in a Fed rate hike — yeah, you read that right. Oh, and someone made $580 million in oil futures exactly 15 minutes before Trump's Iran announcement, which has economists using words like "treason." Buckle up, because this week had a little bit of everything.

🔥 The $580 Million Trade Nobody Can Explain

Just 15 minutes before President Trump posted on Truth Social about "productive conversations" with Iran, roughly $580 million worth of oil futures changed hands in a single minute. Shortly after, oil tanked and equities popped, exactly what someone holding those positions would have wanted. Convenient, right? Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman didn't mince words, calling it treason. His argument goes beyond just unfairness, trading on classified national security information effectively broadcasts government plans to foreign adversaries. He even raised an unsettling question: are decisions about war and peace being shaped, at least in part, by who stands to profit?

Oil analyst Rory Johnston told Fortune the pattern has been hard to ignore, noting that whether or not there's direct manipulation, the administration's messaging alone has been enough to spook traders away from where market fundamentals would otherwise push prices. The White House has not commented.

🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz: A Ticking Clock for Global Energy Markets

The Strait of Hormuz; the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows, remained largely closed this week, and the pressure on energy markets is mounting. Oil executives and analysts are now warning that if the strait isn't reopened by mid April, the fallout could escalate sharply. Brent crude settled Friday at $112.57 per barrel, its highest level since 2022, while WTI closed just below $100, both up roughly 50% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February.

What makes this situation tricky is the uncertainty baked into every price move. Early in the week, Trump announced a five day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, sending oil tumbling more than 10% on Monday. By Friday, those gains had largely reversed as Iran denied any negotiations were taking place. Goldman Sachs summed it up well, near-term prices are being driven less by fundamentals and more by shifting perceptions of worst-case scenarios. The broader concern is that markets may not be fully pricing in the damage already done. Chevron's CEO noted that physical supply is far tighter than futures prices suggest, and analysts estimate that close to 500 million barrels of total liquids have already been lost. The IEA called it the greatest global energy security challenge in history. For investors, the key question heading into next week is simple: how long can this last?

📈 Treasury Yields Hit Eight-Month Highs as Rate Cut Hopes Fade

The bond market had a tough week. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.44%, its highest level since July 2025; while the 2-year settled at 3.88% and the 30-year climbed to 4.98%. Yields move inversely to bond prices, so rising yields signal that investors are selling bonds, not buying them. That's a sign of growing concern about inflation and where rates are headed. The culprit is no mystery. Oil driven inflation fears have flipped rate expectations on their head, markets are now pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by year end, a complete reversal from the two cuts that were expected just weeks ago.

Also worth keeping an eye on is the yield curve. The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has been swinging in and out of negative territory since late February. Historically, that kind of instability in the spread has preceded economic slowdowns. Not a guarantee, but not something to brush off either.

💊 Merck's $6.7 Billion Bet on the Future of Cancer Treatment

With its blockbuster drug Keytruda set to lose patent protection in 2028, Merck isn't sitting still. On March 25th, the company announced it would acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals for $53 per share in cash, a deal valued at roughly $6.7 billion. It's Merck's third multi-billion dollar acquisition in under a year, and arguably its most exciting one yet. The centerpiece of the deal is TERN-701, an experimental oral leukemia drug currently in Phase 1/2 trials for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia who haven't responded well to existing treatments. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets called it one of the best deals Merck has made in its recent acquisition run, noting TERN-701's potential to challenge Novartis' dominant Scemblix franchise; a drug generating billions in annual revenue. Some analysts at Mizuho even suggested the price may have left room for a competing bidder to step in.

The deal is expected to close in Q2 2026, pending antitrust clearance. For investors watching Merck, this is a clear signal that the company is aggressively building its post-Keytruda pipeline, and it's willing to pay up to do it.

👀 Stocks to Watch: What This Week’s Moves Reveal

Markets closed out their fifth straight losing week, with the S&P 500 hitting a seven-month low. While we covered the big stories above, here are a few names worth watching that tell the broader story of where pressure is building:

• Carnival Corporation (CCL | 4.95%) — The cruise giant cut its full-year earnings forecast this week, directly citing surging fuel costs. With Brent crude above $100, any company that moves people or goods is feeling the squeeze. Carnival is an early signal of how badly the oil shock is hitting consumer-facing travel businesses.

• Amazon (AMZN | 5.14%) — One of the biggest drags on the market this week. Rising fuel costs hit logistics hard, and with consumer confidence falling, discretionary spending concerns are mounting. When Amazon struggles, it's usually a sign the broader economy is feeling it too.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT | 0.1%) — On the flip side, defense names quietly outperformed this week. Morgan Stanley flagged aerospace and defense as one of the few sectors with a genuine tailwind right now, as military spending is expected to climb significantly given the ongoing conflict.

• Delta Air Lines (DAL | 0.46%) — Jet fuel is one of the airline industry's biggest costs, and with oil above $110, the math gets ugly fast. Delta and other carriers are facing serious margin pressure, and analysts are already starting to revise earnings estimates lower for Q2.

🔔 That's a Wrap!

Markets closed out their fifth straight losing week, and honestly it's hard to summarize it without sounding dramatic. The Strait of Hormuz disruption kept oil elevated and inflation fears alive, forcing traders to completely flip their rate expectations from cuts to potential hikes. Treasury yields hit eight-month highs, the S&P closed at its lowest level since September, and a suspected insider trading scandal tied to Trump's Iran announcement had economists throwing around words like "treason." Oh, and Merck quietly dropped a $6.7 billion acquisition in the middle of all of it. Heading into next week, all eyes stay on the Middle East, because right now, that's the only story that matters.

Until then, stay focused and stay curious. Catch you next week 👋